It’s hard to make a profit on sports betting, even when you don’t make any mistakes. But if you make mistakes, either in the betting or in the handicap, then it becomes almost impossible to make a profit. Many people rely on luck to try to win at sports betting, but it is much better to use the right talent and strategies. And of course not to make mistakes.
So let’s take a look at the most common things people do wrong.
Mistakes made with disabilities
Not remembering which team is the best
It is quite possible to overanalyze many small details, for example, psychological factors or statistical data. With all this in your head, it’s easy to miss the obvious, which team is the best. When you look at the winning percentages of teams in the NFL and NBA, they are usually the ones with the best point records. Of course they don’t always win, some situations will certainly affect their game, but the best team usually overcomes a lot of problems. The best team will not always win, but everyone is always the best to bet on.
Becoming too dependent on technical trends
It is often said in the financial world that just because a stock or fund has performed well in the past does not mean it will in the future. But it is also true for sports betting. The team’s performance in the past is very interesting, but that doesn’t mean it’s a predictor of how they’ll perform in the future. You should be careful when you are given information about a trend, someone may have made a theory to fit past results, and that theory may not predict future results. People who have successfully analyzed sports betting will look at each game individually instead of relying on a trend.
Doing too much of the last game
A winning game could easily be a fluke, there could be a good reason for one team playing higher than usual or another team playing worse. When considering how to place your bets, it’s wise to review a few games rather than just one, especially if that game is unusually high-rolling or worse than usual. We all have good days and bad days, the same goes for sports teams.
Considering only the strength of the offensive team
Championships are won by defense, it’s a cliché, but it’s become a cliché because it’s usually the truth. If the other team can’t score, then they can’t win. While it’s great if your team can score a few points, it can easily lose if the other side scores more, because your team has weak defense. Many sports bettors seem to ignore defense and only bet on the teams that score. But take a look at some winning teams, for example, the Pistons’ NBA title, the Patriots’ third Super Bowl, and the World Series victory in red socks. So the message is don’t just look at the offense, look at the defense.
Being too worried about injuries
In a small team, say basketball, each individual player has great value to the team. In a large team, for example soccer, each individual player has a smaller value in proportion to the team. What this means is that if a star player on a basketball team is injured, it matters more than if a star player on a football team is injured. But the bookies know this, so they’re quick to adjust the lines when there’s been an injury, so punters aren’t likely to make much money here. You have to be careful not to put too much emphasis on an absence, a team will often go into a game without their key player showing a lot more effort and a lot more determination to get it right, especially from the person who is replacing the key player.
Not getting the right balance between talent and motivation
Just because the team is highly motivated to win doesn’t mean they have the talent to do it. In fact, sometimes the motivation and the way in which players can psych themselves can be detrimental. If players act aggressively, they are much more likely to commit fouls or make plays that result in penalties. You also have to remember that the most talented players or teams will also have high motivation to show that they still have talent, so it is not easy to say who will be more motivated the team that won easily last year all the team that fought hard but lost.
It is important to choose the right side in sports betting. After all, you won’t win by choosing the wrong team! However, it is also very important to have solid techniques and betting principles. Professional players are often known to be great at betting, even if they aren’t that good at handicaps. The trick is learning to bet.
Errors in sports betting
Putting up more money than you can afford to lose
Bookies like punters to win a cut of what’s out there, that keeps them playing and paying! A player with no money will not place any bets. A strategy or plan that you stick to in a disciplined way is the best way to use your funds. A well-respected plan to use is the “Kelly criterion,” named after its author, John Kelly. The way this works is that on each play you bet a percentage of your available bankroll. For example, if you have $1000 available and you decide to use 10% on each play, your first bet would be $100. If that play results in a win, you will now have $1100 and your next bet will be $110. However, if that play results in a loss, you now have $900 available and your next bet will be $90. When betting violations, using these plans means you won’t go broke.
Getting emotional and getting even
If you want to be successful in sports betting, you need more discipline than excitement. You will have losing bets and you will have days where you lose overall. But it will only make things worse if you try to use a bet to win back a previous bet. Don’t get excited and promise yourself that this bet will call you for a previous bet.
Betting too much money on one hand
Each game or play is worth betting on or not worth betting on. Therefore, gambling professionals will bet approximately the same amount on each spin. Players who are constantly making money have seen many times where freak accidents or freak luck, or poor decisions by officials can change the way the game plays out. Remember the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint? Everyone knew which horse was going to win, until that horse jumped over a shadow that allowed his rival to win right at the finish line. Thinking that he has the best bet or a lock can cause you to bet too much in that game. Worse still is when you try to win back previous losses, or retaliate by betting too much. If you want to bet a little more on a game, do it when you’re on a winning streak, not a losing streak.
Choosing a game because it is televised
If you want to make money from this, you should choose your bets for solid reasons, not just because they’re on TV! If you want to bet on the game because you’re watching it, that’s fine, but it should be a recreational bet, not part of your serious strategy.
Choose too few games to place a bet
To the uninformed, it may seem like the best way to get ahead is to carefully choose where you will bet and limit your exposure. However, this will make luck a much bigger factor in your success than it needs to be. Luck is out there, bad decisions by officials, strange luck, strange accidents. But to minimize the impact of these, you need to spread your money around, and to do so, you need to play a lot of games.